Metals Roundup March '25: Golden Bears step out as MAGA promise fades reality

Image: Mike and Wombo collaboration

The hollow MAGA promise

Today I wanted to start with MAGA.

If you look at the red circled area in the LME (cash delivery) copper chart below, you’ll see the bearish copper head and shoulders pattern that formed, right after the previous one.

It coincides with the overall commodities price index head and shoulders that I’ve been writing about since mid-last year 👇

Below the red circle are a few ants being frogmarched into a hole.

What’s this telling us?

The hole is where copper would have been had the Trump MAGA machine not revved up with promises of MAGA and a golden age in manufacturing.

And then came tariff guidance—which in turn led to copper purchasing ahead of tariffs, i.e., frontrunning and hence the arrow pointing up the right. A false dan (again) for copper.

Nonetheless, price collapse averted—but not for long.

Next? Indiscriminate blunt instrument tariff action—with retaliatory tariffs and re-retaliatory tariffs (seemingly designed against countries with big trade surpluses against the U.S.) covering the globe like a rash of whack-a-mole—and which by the way ratcheted up again recently with 103% tariffs on China.

The reality of where, how and on what basis tariffs have been implemented has shattered Trump’s promise of an idyllic economic Arcadia—with the cliff fall in the above chart indicating the skull in Poussin’s masterpiece—the reality of planet killing tariffs—as copper, aluminium and nickel are flushed down the dunny and out to sea.

Let’s see how things transpire over the coming months as we enter a structural bear market in equities and a flight to cash, gold, bonds and selective currencies—while Trump continues to do things potentially designed to force the Fed to pivot—and China into mercantilist submission.

Yes, there’s a strategy in play, but it’s hard to see for the tactics.

And now, to your base and bulk minerals rate of change charts for March!

Your charts 📈

Base Metals 🔗🏮🔌

Sort term front-running, slowing, and down from here on in, until tariff resolution, dollar weakness and China stimulus—and what that means is that there’s no change to the NextLevelCorporate thesis.

LME copper hit $8,759/t yesterday.

Copyright, NextLevelCorporate Advisory

Bulk minerals - inch by inch, still no help from USD 🧱👷‍♀️🌉

SMASHED 🏏🏏🏏

SMASHED

SMASHED

Watch out for responses from our miners and how they respond to tariffs on one hand, and China stimulus yet to roll out, on the other.

Special focus on FMG and MIN. April and May could be defining months.

Copyright, NextLevelCorporate Advisory

Energy minerals (ex-coal and oil) ⚗🧲☢

The July 6, 2023, price high for LME Lithium Hydroxide CIF was US$46,046.

On the last day of March, it was US$9,250, some $20 higher than last month after two months of $240 decreases.

Still a decline of 79% from its July 2023 peak. The consistent sound you’re hearing is……. ouch...

Good luck trying to price it today. Beware miners unless you’re a trader.

Although not included in the index, uranium spot hit US$64/t—still well below its peak in January, with still no change to the ALP’s vacuous stance on zero emissions sustainable uranium.

Volatility (still) ahead for industrial metals, no change to thesis

I’ll say it again, Aussie export commodities are in for a few volatile years—so, you may want to revisit and potentially recalibrate your investment thesis and corporate development strategy if you’ve built your strategy for yesterday’s macro and geopolitical drivers.

Keep an eye on the dollar as Trump guns USS Alonism’s engines (after bludgeoning Canada and Mexico and the rest of the world)—and screams ramming speed.

We are heading for some cyclical dollar weakness, but within a secular or long-term dollar strength thesis. That hasn’t changed.

Some weakness in the dollar should lead to respite outside the U.S., with a gentler dollar actually creating liquidity in those countries, and while we’ve seen a glimpse of that which I call Dollar Kenobi (especially in Europe with the DXY touching $101 at the beginning of April) we’re not there yet.

Until then, make sure your projects and growth levers (and funding methods) are profoundly robust. The dollar and China will continue to drive Western Australia’s fortunes.

Also, be careful if you’re deal-making. Right now, we’re likely to mainly see desperation deals, with inter coming. And after that bloodletting—a spring rebirth. There’s a time for all commodities if you watch the macro.

But for now, its Gold and PM

Precious metals continue to glimmer right now—gold and silver, in particular. It’s all good.

And the golden bears? Looking good Billy Ray.

See you in the market.

M


Image: Mike and Wombo collaboration

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