Tortoise Bank

Image: Jiří Mikoláš

Hard, uncompromising, surgical, committed, definitive, accountable and decisive.

Nope, that’s not the RBA, and after paring back the blabber in the July “Minutes: Reserve Bank Board Monetary Policy Meeting”, here’s how it came to its recent interest rate indecision.

  1. Inflation is high in many advanced economies, causing concern for central banks.

  2. Core inflation remains stubbornly high, driven by services price inflation.

  3. China's economic recovery has lost momentum, particularly in the property market.

  4. Commodity prices are mixed, with some falling and others remaining below last year's levels.

  5. Australia's economy has slowed due to higher interest rates and inflation.

  6. The labour market in Australia is still tight, with low unemployment.

  7. Inflation in Australia is expected to gradually decrease but remains a concern.

  8. Wages are growing, but household incomes are impacted by higher prices and taxes.

  9. Consumer spending is weak due to higher inflation and interest rates.

  10. Undecided about raising interest rates so will reassess the situation in August.

They seem to have missed the point, which is to say that it’s not the level of inflation that regulates spending and consumption behaviour, it’s the rate of change that really matters.

And if it’s too slow, some tortoises never get to finish their race before getting flipped.

Mike

Next Level Corporate Advisory is a leading Australian M&A, capital and corporate development advisor with a dealmaking track record spanning three decades. We help family, private and publicly owned companies build and realise value in their businesses, assets and investments.

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