Back in August it became clear that the Phase One trade deal was still a miss by a long way.

At that time, it was running at around 69% of target.

New numbers from the Peterson Institute for International Economics show that it was running at the same 69% of target again, in August.

Here’s the new chart.

But that was before our Prime Minster swapped Dijon mustard for American relish with his sub deal, and then waxed on about buying some big and beautiful rockets.

uh oh……

So, could this be as good as Phase One gets?

Perhaps. We should find out in October once the September scorecard is released - which is to say that it’s been an appalling month for bilateral relations, all round.

And if it is, will the spill-over effects be purely economic and kicked down the road with more vaguely diplomatic fixes, or will it morph into a new level of dispute played with bigger and blunter instruments?

Until we know more, see you around the park.

Mike.