Figures which track China’s $200 billion trade purchase commitments under Donald Trump’s so-called phase one trade deal show the deal has not lived up to expectations.

There’s a shock.

As the forerunner to a yet to be seen big and beautiful phase two deal, the execution has been uninspiring.

Even if Trump had been returned to Pennsylvania Blvd., phase one was simply a foil to de-escalate the hostilities in the lead up to the November 2020 elections.

Tap on the Bambino 👇 👇 👇 for a refresher on where trade relations were between the China and the U.S., almost exactly one year ago, and six months after phase one (of one) was signed.

Have the targets been met?

Fast forward 18 months + one week. have targets been met?

In short, no.

The target for U.S, purchased goods under the deal was less than 60% fulfilled by the end of 2020, according to the Petersen Institute of International Economics (Petersen) 👇 👇 👇

And how’s it looking in 2021, so far?

Not much better and still running at under 70% of target 👇 👇 👇

And of the products covered by the deal, the biggest miss has been in energy products.

You can’t put that one down to COVID because China can and does buy energy from other countries.

For the U.S., this would have been pretty disappointing 👇 👇 👇

And finally, bi-lateral trade in products not covered by the trade deal did not grow in 2020, and that negative growth trend continues in 2021.

Some might say that without the phase one placeholder, all products might have looked like this 👇 👇 👇

Here’s the full report from Petersen which includes a spreadsheet containing source import/export data.

What now for the Biden camp?

While it was Trump and Liu’s deal, Biden is not backing off.

Here’s an excerpt from the Office of the United States Trade Representative’s “2021 Trade Agenda”, which outlines the strategy taken by his Administration.

Not sure about you, and regardless of whether it’s right or wrong, I’d call this a baseball bat.

“Addressing China’s Coercive and Unfair Economic Trade Practices Through a Comprehensive Strategy: The Biden Administration recognizes that China's coercive and unfair trade practices harm American workers, threaten our technological edge, weaken our supply chain resiliency, and undermine our national interests. The ongoing comprehensive review of U.S. trade policy toward China is integral to the development of the Administration’s overall China strategy.

The Biden Administration is committed to using all available tools to take on the range of China’s unfair trade practices that continue to harm U.S. workers and businesses. It will also make it a top priority to address the widespread human rights abuses of the Chinese government’s forced labor program that targets the Uyghurs and other ethnic and religious minorities in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region and elsewhere in the country.

Along with pursuing strong enforcement to ensure that China lives up to its existing trade obligations, the Biden Administration will also seek to collaborate with allies to address global market distortions created by industrial overcapacity.  Key sectors range from steel and aluminum to fiber optics, solar, and other sectors where the Chinese Government has been a key contributor.”

Thems fighting words mister.

Alas, different leaders, but still miles apart.

Mike.