The interim ceasefire you agree to when peace is unlikely to be forthcoming.

With 84% of the dollar value of existing tariffs on around US$360 billion of China imports still in force in the U.S., plus an unsigned phase one trade deal, and the unresolved deeper issues of trade imbalances, IP protection, forced technology transfer and Central Government subsidies - the trade war won’t be resolved for some time.

We don’t really know (if and when) because so far we’ve only seen a short phase one deal fact sheet from the Office of the US Trade Representative and even the China purchases of pork and other agricultural products are yet to be confirmed.

The date for signing the actual agreement is “Very shortly,” according to Donald Trump.

Meaningful, or smoke and mirrors? Too early to tell, but while leaders kick the trade can down the road, central bankers kick the QE can. The result? Equities continue to grind upwards.

Mike.

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